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The Black Swan

Every time people talk about a black swan during calmer times, they assume they have managed to factor in the most remotest of chances. Everything from the past and the craziest ideas are all thought through and that justifies unabated rallies. Complacency in the market is built one brick at a time. Feb 2020 would have to be one of those months. Having climbed all possible hurdles the market was set to rip higher. Targets were all revised up no matter the economy was growing at 1%. And then the virus came calling.

As unpredictable as this last month has been, was it really that unpredictable? Hollywood has been showing us all the worst case scenarios and a TED talk by Bill Gates about our unpreparedness for a pandemic from 5 years ago has been there on my feed for the past two years. But then again Black Swans are always obvious in hindsight.

I am grimacing at the thought of all the PUTs I had last year which would have been an amazing windfall if I held them today. But psychology is…

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