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Short time

It is not lost upon me, the extent to which I was lucky with my timing on the market puts that successfully played out for me last year. Especially given the rapid return to the highs in a matter of three months this year, I figure I had a very small window to be right and I just happened to be at the right place at the right time.

Now with the end of the first quarter there is a new strategy that I have been playing with. Again, this is a short play to cover my longs but it comes from a scenario that played out in the last couple of downturns and I suspect will play out once again. The question I am still grappling with is if this is really a downturn that we are are staring down or is it really a goldilocks where the economy will chug along for a couple of years.

Early in the year there were ominous signs of a slow down from big industrials and transports such as Caterpillar, FedEx, Rails etc. Even today there was a downgrade of the global economy by the IMF and poor manufacturing …

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